London is the new European Start up Capital

Despite Brexit and related roller coaster of economic and monetary factors, the first six months of 2016 have stated the overtake of London vs Berlin as capital of start up in Europe.

According to the German EY’s startup barometer report in fact, investments in Berlin have dramatically fallen to 520m€ in the first semester of this year, sinking the whole Germany to a 957m€  amount that is the half compared to the same period of 2015.

Infographic: London Usurps Berlin As Startup Capital Of Europe | StatistaYou will find more statistics at Statista

This tumble, with the contemporary rise of London and Stockholm, has taken Berlin out of the podium as also Paris has  bring investment into startups to a bright 673m€ level.

The amount of 1,32om€ for London is also remarkable considering the fall of 12% in fintech investments and funding on the same period in the city.

The next year would probably bring more clarity due to the mitigation of Brexit effects but London will any case play a main role in the startup funding and development sector.

EY website: www.ey.com

 

Advertisements

To Italexit or not to Italexit that is the problem

Two months are now passed since June 23rd. The Brexit vote has shaken the EU but as far as today, as per my previous article forecast “To Brexit or not to Brexit that is the question”, no major disasters seem to have happened.

After few weeks of roller coasting the pound has strongly recovery both vs USD and EUR to a more realistic 1.31 and 1.17 exchange rate respectively. All UK economic indexes seem to be positive or at least not so bad and few sectors, like real estate, are suffering but due to other problems. Same happens for European countries.

The real issue that may affect EU though is the referendum that soon (late 2016 or first months of 2017) will be held in Italy to confirm constitutional amendments. Nobody is talking about such deadline of course but this event can, in my opinion, kick-off a chain reaction that my change Europe as we know it.

1443264256-1410621191-matteo-renzi

Italian Prime Minister Renzi

A victory of No side would more likely bring to as consequence an immediate fall of Renzi’s government; it has bond its fate to reform path approval and despite recent change of strategy a defeat of Yes party will bring to Renzi’s political end.

Recent polls (Scenari politici – Winpoll 13 – Italian) give a No side lead at 53% thus by the end of the year Italian government may fall and bring to an election in early 2017. At this point a win of the old parties would be nearly impossible, all the polls in fact see the anti-euro Movimento 5 Stelle on the lead at ballots both with Centrosinistra and Centrodestra (Termometro politico – Italian).

Such a situation may lead to an Italian referendum to leave the EU (baked also by Salvini’s Lega Nord), and an Italexit would bring a landslide in the continent. Differently from UK in fact Italy has a stronger bond with EU.

It’s one of the founder countries and politically would be a deadly failure for the union, it is furthermore in the Euro-BCE system and thus will affect dramatically the economy and probably the survival of such a currency. Last but not least Italy has a very weak economy and bank system and an exit would bring to an implosion of the country and whole North Mediterranean area (Greece, Portugal).

An Italexit in brief would mean the end of the EU as we know it.

Beat Brexit with night-life economy

A strong help to overcome Brexit struggles may apparently come from an unexpected allied: night-life economy.

Starting from August 19th, in fact, the night opening of tube’s busiest Central and Victoria lines on fridays and saturdays should bring an immediate boost to London’s economy.

Lancaster_Gate_tube

London Underground – Courtesy Wikipedia

According to a report compiled by the Centre for Economic and Business Research and reported by cityam.com, we could expect from night opening and few licensing laws tweaks an immediate 3bn £ extra earnings, with a potential growth to 43bn £ – along with an extra 115,000 jobs – by 2030.

Surprisingly the night-life contribution will not mainly benefit Entertainment/Recreation sector (1.3bn £) but Logistic/Delivery (7.8bn £), Financial and Professional sector (5.6bn £) and Health/Social work (5.4bn £).

A full 24/7 London thus could lead to important figures to city’s economy… drink a pint after dinner has never been so healthy!

Centre for Economic and Business Research: www.cebr.com

City A.M.: www.cityam.com

To Brexit or not to Brexit… that is the question

mr-bean-brexit

Even Mr.Bean is harassed by Brexit dilemma

With three weeks to the B(rexit)-day, set for June 23rd, the picture of what outcome will most likely happens is getting clearer.

According to almost all trackers and watch indicators in fact, as the fatal date approaches, Undecided side shrinks to make “Remain in the EU” choice wealthier.

Bloomberg Brexit Tracker, with its last track, gives the Undecided to a 10% (lowest point since tracking started) and a firm 5.1% lead of the Remain party; both the rising of pound value and the corporate bond spread deflating they registered, bake the polls result indicating a Remain victory.

To the same result comes  The Financial Times that assigns a 12% to Undecided versus a 5% lead of the Remains and also Matt Singh of ncpolitics.uk , assigns a 5.7 points lead to Remain and calculate a 82.6% chance of  Remain victory.

What is , thus, the answer to the Hamletic doubt that is putting the continent on flames? To Brexit or not to Brexit… well honestly i believe the answer should be: doesn’t matter!

The UK in fact is already “essentially outside” the European Union and will furthermore be distant from the EU standard and rules,even with a Remain win, after the agreement signed few months ago by Cameroon. This is due a number of reasons:

1- UK is monetary independent: the Pound is the only European currency (along with dear oldie Swiss franc) that is baked by gold and is independent by BCE authorities, a change in monetary politics is an option that other sovereign EU countries doesn’t have.

2- Irregular migration is basically under control along with …the press news… does anybody remember Calais? Everyday disembarks like Italian and Greek ones are only a faded mirage.

3- Regular migration: even with eastern EU workers flooding the job-market seems totally under control to me; the market regulate itself beside potential visa limitations and… do you really believe somebody can live and pay a rent in London or other areas without a job being on government assistance??

4- Markets and economy: UK relies still on the Commonwealth and US rather the EU,  it already has treaties with all main EU countries and an exit from the EEA would be coped with in a matter of weeks. Also UK is the place where real tax pressure is lower and regulation lighter among EU countries.. i hardly see multinationals and corporations escape.. even to Germany where to change the address of your business you need a notary…

Thus all the Brexit issues seem a show to me, meant to detract attention from other European and World wide problems and , on the UK side, to postpone bigger internal social and political problems.

In fact whether it will be a Brexit or not… on June 24th I wouldn’t put myself in Cameroon’s shoes .

Brexit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_withdrawal_from_the_European_Union

Mr. Bean: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Bean