With three weeks to the B(rexit)-day, set for June 23rd, the picture of what outcome will most likely happens is getting clearer.
According to almost all trackers and watch indicators in fact, as the fatal date approaches, Undecided side shrinks to make “Remain in the EU” choice wealthier.
Bloomberg Brexit Tracker, with its last track, gives the Undecided to a 10% (lowest point since tracking started) and a firm 5.1% lead of the Remain party; both the rising of pound value and the corporate bond spread deflating they registered, bake the polls result indicating a Remain victory.
To the same result comes The Financial Times that assigns a 12% to Undecided versus a 5% lead of the Remains and also Matt Singh of ncpolitics.uk , assigns a 5.7 points lead to Remain and calculate a 82.6% chance of Remain victory.
What is , thus, the answer to the Hamletic doubt that is putting the continent on flames? To Brexit or not to Brexit… well honestly i believe the answer should be: doesn’t matter!
The UK in fact is already “essentially outside” the European Union and will furthermore be distant from the EU standard and rules,even with a Remain win, after the agreement signed few months ago by Cameroon. This is due a number of reasons:
1- UK is monetary independent: the Pound is the only European currency (along with dear oldie Swiss franc) that is baked by gold and is independent by BCE authorities, a change in monetary politics is an option that other sovereign EU countries doesn’t have.
2- Irregular migration is basically under control along with …the press news… does anybody remember Calais? Everyday disembarks like Italian and Greek ones are only a faded mirage.
3- Regular migration: even with eastern EU workers flooding the job-market seems totally under control to me; the market regulate itself beside potential visa limitations and… do you really believe somebody can live and pay a rent in London or other areas without a job being on government assistance??
4- Markets and economy: UK relies still on the Commonwealth and US rather the EU, it already has treaties with all main EU countries and an exit from the EEA would be coped with in a matter of weeks. Also UK is the place where real tax pressure is lower and regulation lighter among EU countries.. i hardly see multinationals and corporations escape.. even to Germany where to change the address of your business you need a notary…
Thus all the Brexit issues seem a show to me, meant to detract attention from other European and World wide problems and , on the UK side, to postpone bigger internal social and political problems.
In fact whether it will be a Brexit or not… on June 24th I wouldn’t put myself in Cameroon’s shoes .
Mr. Bean: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mr._Bean